200GW full-speed expansion! Musk is serious this time.

Musk's actions were faster than anyone anticipated.

At the Davos Forum in January, Musk revealed plans for Tesla and SpaceX to each build 100GW annual capacity solar factories in the US over the next three years, totaling 200GW.

This news initially met with skepticism and a wait-and-see attitude from the industry. After all, the US faces challenges such as high manufacturing costs, a shortage of skilled workers, and an incomplete supply chain for auxiliary materials. Furthermore, Tesla has a history of initial highs followed by disappointments in photovoltaic manufacturing.

But this time, the dust has settled.

On May 20th, Electrek exclusively confirmed that Tesla officially launched its 100GW solar panel Gigafactory project in Brooksville, near Houston, Texas. This marks a crucial step in Musk's Davos blueprint.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg disclosed permit application documents showing that SpaceX is building a 10GW solar cell manufacturing plant in Bastrop, Texas. The plant features a dual-layer design, with each layer having an annual capacity of 5GW, focusing on high-efficiency heterojunction cells, with the goal of providing power for orbital AI data centers. From his ambitious 200GW declaration at Davos to the groundbreaking of two photovoltaic factories, in less than five months, Musk's "ground-based plus space-based" photovoltaic matrix is ​​rapidly moving from concept to reality. This sudden surge in production capacity is destined to create significant ripples in the global photovoltaic competitive landscape.

I. A Decade-Long Comeback Struggle
Tesla's ambitions in photovoltaic manufacturing are long-standing, but previous attempts have almost all ended in failure.

In 2016, Tesla acquired SolarCity for approximately $2.6 billion, taking over its photovoltaic manufacturing plant in Buffalo, New York. At the time, it declared it would build "the world's leading solar manufacturing plant," receiving nearly $1 billion in public subsidies from New York State and promising to create 1,500 jobs.

However, for nearly a decade afterward, the Buffalo factory experienced a bumpy decline.

Tesla initially outsourced panel production to Panasonic, which withdrew in 2020. Subsequently, the factory was used for many years to produce Supercharger components and Autopilot data annotation, with photovoltaic manufacturing nearly at a standstill. By the first quarter of 2024, Tesla completely removed solar deployment data from its financial reports, no longer disclosing it separately.

A turning point began at the end of 2025. Tesla restarted production of TSP-420 Solar Modules at its Buffalo factory and officially launched the US-made version for commercial use in January 2026. However, the Buffalo factory's annual capacity is only about 300MW, far from enough to support Musk's ambitions.

To ensure production capacity is achieved on schedule, Tesla has taken the lead in equipment procurement. Reports indicate that in March of this year, Tesla spent approximately $2.9 billion to centrally procure manufacturing equipment from multiple photovoltaic equipment suppliers in China, covering mainstream high-efficiency battery technologies such as TOPCon and HJT. The equipment is expected to be delivered and shipped to Texas before the fall.

The location of the Brooksville factory was also carefully considered. Located in the Empire West business park, about 35 miles west of Houston, Tesla has long-term leased buildings 9 and 10, totaling 1.65 million square feet, and plans to build another 600,000 square feet of new factory space. The entire park has been reserved for Tesla.

Compared to Tesla's existing Austin Gigafactory, the Houston area boasts a large port, facilitating the import of manufacturing equipment from China, abundant industrial labor resources, and more mature infrastructure.

However, what truly sets this location apart is its proximity to Tesla's Megapack Energy Storage Gigafactory. ManufacturingPhotovoltaic Panels and energy storage batteries within the same campus means that the entire supply chain, from raw material arrival to the packaging and shipment of the photovoltaic-energy storage system, is compressed into a closed loop, resulting in undeniable advantages in logistics efficiency and cost control.

II. Tesla's Focus on Vertical Integration

For a long time, the global photovoltaic industry chain has been segmented and specialized. Silicon materials are produced in resource-rich areas, crystal pulling and slicing are concentrated in areas with lower electricity prices, cell and module manufacturing is clustered in manufacturing clusters, and finished products are ultimately distributed worldwide through distribution channels.

Throughout the entire industry chain, each segment has formed a substantial industrial scale, but between these segments lie thousands of kilometers of logistics and countless market players vying for power.

Tesla aims to take a completely different path. Within the same factory area in Brooksville, processes such as silicon ingot pulling, silicon wafer cutting, cell production, and module packaging will all be completed in adjacent workshops, from a piece of silicon material to a finished panel, all within the park's boundaries.

Currently, Tesla is investing over $250 million to simultaneously build multiple cleanroom-level complex manufacturing facilities, creating a world-class intelligent photovoltaic manufacturing base. According to the plan, the Brooksville factory will reach full production by the end of 2028, at which time Tesla's annual photovoltaic production capacity will be 300 times that of the Buffalo factory.

This vertical integration of the entire supply chain deserves to be understood from two perspectives.

The most direct change is reflected in production cost control. Tesla has packed silicon ingots, silicon wafers, cells, and modules into the same park, minimizing supply chain links, effectively reducing cross-stage logistics expenses, and significantly reducing material storage losses.

Beyond cost advantages, the value reconstruction brought about by the synergy of photovoltaics and energy storage has even greater long-term significance. Tesla's large-scale photovoltaic power plant projects are generally paired with Megapack energy storage equipment, and residential rooftop photovoltaics are also often used in combination with Powerwall energy storage products. Leveraging the convenience of on-site manufacturing, Tesla can combine massive amounts of real-world operational data to optimize the power generation performance of its Photovoltaic Modules, making product designs more aligned with actual application scenarios.

Recently, Tesla successfully secured a cooperation order to provide and operate a 200MW/1600MWh energy storage system for a comprehensive energy project jointly developed by Meta and Enbridge. The project also includes a 365MW photovoltaic power station specifically designed to provide stable and uninterrupted clean power for the AI ​​data center.

It's clear that unlike traditional photovoltaic (PV) companies that rely on selling modules to earn basic processing profits, Tesla views PV products as a vehicle for building an energy ecosystem. Leveraging its energy storage support services and smart energy management business, it aims to tap into the long-term value-added potential of the PV-storage industry.

III. Feast or Gamble?

Musk's PV blueprint is ambitious, but behind this grand strategy lie multiple uncertainties and real challenges.

The biggest uncertainty stems from policy. Musk's PV-storage manufacturing is inseparable from federal subsidies. Referring to the revenue structure of the US PV company First Solar, a 45x tax credit can bring a $0.17 per watt revenue increase, with subsidy revenue accounting for over 55% of the module's selling price. Once Tesla's gigawatt-scale factory is fully operational, it will also enjoy substantial policy subsidy benefits.

However, policies are gradually tightening. Starting in 2026, PV supporting cells and core components must meet a 50% domestic production ratio standard to fully claim subsidies, and the domestic production capacity requirement will increase annually thereafter.

Currently, Tesla still largely sources its production equipment from China, and the development of its domestic supporting supply chain is progressing slowly. Whether it can keep up with the tightening of policies remains an unpredictable variable.

Secondly, the cost barrier remains very high. Morgan Stanley estimates that building a vertically integrated photovoltaic factory covering the entire process would require a total capital investment of $30 billion to $70 billion. The currently disclosed $250 million is only for basic factory construction, far from meeting the final construction needs.

At present, the cost of photovoltaic manufacturing in the United States is significantly higher. Even with supply chain integration to reduce expenses and receiving policy subsidies, whether it can truly close the gap with China remains to be seen and will depend on market feedback.

In addition, Tesla itself faces financial difficulties. In the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue and net profit both declined year-on-year, with weak sales growth in its main automotive business; the installed capacity of its energy storage segment decreased by 15% year-on-year, and even with a gross profit margin of 39.5%, it is difficult to make up for the performance gap in the vehicle business.

The subsequent investment in two 100-watt-level photovoltaic factories is unlikely to translate into stable returns in the short term, further squeezing the company's cash flow. In conclusion, the successive commissioning of Musk's two photovoltaic factories presents both a challenge and a warning for China's photovoltaic industry, which has long led the world.

Industry competition has long surpassed mere production capacity and cost; future core competitiveness lies in technological iteration capabilities, supply chain collaboration, and influence within the energy ecosystem.

Only by moving beyond a singular manufacturing mindset, cultivating technological barriers, accelerating integrated transformation, and building long-term business models can domestic photovoltaic companies maintain their advantages in the new round of global energy transformation.